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2014年江门市蓬江江海区房地产市场分析报告

江门住建局  2015-02-12 08:40

[摘要] 2014年，我市房地产行业跟随全国房地产市场调整。但在调控之下，调整较为理性，呈现政策变调、增速下滑、结构调整、库存攀升、区域分化、企业利润压缩等一系列新特征。在市场各方的积极应对，及一系列政策叠加的助力下，市场在四季度出现一些的积极的信号。全年量价整体保持稳定，风险可控。各项主要指标仍处于大致合理

（四）、土地供应

2014年，蓬江、江海区有效供应房地产用地共31块，用地面积合共103.86万平方米（约1558亩），同比增长73.1%；可建成计算容积率的建筑面积共约277.05万平方米，同比增长64.1%；成交总价44.50亿元，同比增长85.1%；折合楼面地价约为1606元/平方米，同比增长12.9%。

注：1、协议出让的土地的容积率按平均2.5计算。

2、体育中心地块、流拍地块、挂牌转让地块未计算在内。

2014年的商品房土地供应主要有以下几个特点：

1、总量同比增加七成，与2012年持平。近五年年均供应建筑面积196万平方米，明显高于年均批准预售面积（163万）和年均成交面积（139万）。

2、从供应方式来看，三旧改造（协议出让）比例约占六成，已成为一个重要的土地供应来源；从区域来看，主要集中在北新区（35%）、江海区（33%）和滨江新区（21%）；从时间来看，年末（12月）推地较为集中。

3、企业拿地意愿整体下降。

（五）、商品房供应

2014年，蓬江、江海区批准52个房地产开发企业预售商品房项目共53个，比去年增加8个；其中新开盘项目23个，与去年持平。

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2014年的商品房供应主要有以下几个特点：

1、供应总量同比小幅回落，但住宅明显增加。（见图3、下表）供应量在经历了2010-2012三年的稳定期后，2013、2014连续两年呈爆发式增长。2014年住宅供应的增长尤为迅猛，商业类的供应比例则回归至较为合理的水平。

房地产数据

各类用途商品房供应面积比例 （单位：%）

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RDER-: #f0f0f0;HEIGHT: 14.25pt;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: black 0.5pt solid;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height="19" width="72">2010年RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 67pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="89">93RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 62pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="83">7RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 62pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="82">2009年RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 65pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="87">91RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 76pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="101">7

2、供应时段主要集中在下半年。见图4、下表， 一季度供应比较平淡，二季度起大幅增加，三、四季度供应量接近。年内两个供应高峰分别在8月和11月。下半年占全年供应总量的65%。全年月均供应1473套。

房地产数据

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RDER-: #f0f0f0;HEIGHT: 15.75pt;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height="21" width="72">比例RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 67pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="89">12%RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 62pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="83">23%RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 62pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="82">33%RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 65pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="87">32%

3、供应区域不平衡，集中在北新区和滨江新区。这两个区域供应面积比例之和高达74%，使得区域内项目之间的竞争十分激烈。江海区比例则下降至19%。而作为未来城镇化发展的重点，杜阮、潮连和荷塘等区域开发和供应力度相对不足应引起重视。

近五年各区域供应面积比例 单位：%

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RDER-: #f0f0f0;HEIGHT: 14.25pt;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: black 0.5pt solid;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height="19" width="72">2014年RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">44RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">30RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">19RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">3RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">3RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">1
RDER-: #f0f0f0;HEIGHT: 14.25pt;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: black 0.5pt solid;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height="19" width="72">2013年RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">37RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">20RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">30RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">9RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">4RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">1
RDER-: #f0f0f0;HEIGHT: 14.25pt;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: black 0.5pt solid;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height="19" width="72">2012年RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">32RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">10RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">41RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">9RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">1RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">7
RDER-: #f0f0f0;HEIGHT: 14.25pt;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: black 0.5pt solid;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height="19" width="72">2011年RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">57RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">12RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">11RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">18RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">0RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">3
RDER-: #f0f0f0;HEIGHT: 14.25pt;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: black 0.5pt solid;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height="19" width="72">2010年RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">41RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">7RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">25RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">15RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">6RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">6

4、住宅的供应户型结构继续趋向中小户型。见下表，120平方米以下的供应比例超过七成，大户型（144平方米以上）的比例则继续下滑至只有一成。

各面积段建住宅成交套数比例 单位：%

RDER-COLLAPSE: collapse;WIDTH: 270pt" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="360" border="0">
RDER-: black 0.5pt solid;HEIGHT: 15.75pt;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: black 0.5pt solid;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height="21" width="72">RDER-: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">90以下RDER-: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">90-120RDER-: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">120-144RDER-: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">144以上
RDER-: #f0f0f0;HEIGHT: 14.25pt;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: black 0.5pt solid;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height="19" width="72">2014年RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">26RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">46RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">18RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">10
RDER-: #f0f0f0;HEIGHT: 14.25pt;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: black 0.5pt solid;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height="19" width="72">2013年RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">19RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">51RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">18RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">12
RDER-: #f0f0f0;HEIGHT: 14.25pt;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: black 0.5pt solid;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height="19" width="72">2012年RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">23RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">39RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">19RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">19
RDER-: #f0f0f0;HEIGHT: 14.25pt;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: black 0.5pt solid;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height="19" width="72">2011年RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">24RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">32RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">18RDER-: #f0f0f0;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-BOTTOM: black 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0;WIDTH: 54pt;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="72">26

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